NFL Best Bets: Week 7

Sports Betting

By Doug Burrell

Posted on October 18, 2024

NFL Best Bets: Week 7

Last week’s 1-2 finish leaves me at 12-6 ATS for the season, which is still solid overall. Detroit came through with a convincing win, covering easily. But Philly, despite the win, finished the game in victory formation, squashing any chance of covering their spread. Meanwhile, Tennessee couldn’t hold off Joe Flacco, who led the Colts to a comeback win. Though the results weren’t ideal, there’s still plenty of time to build on what’s been a strong season so far.

I wanted to talk about the importance of key numbers, especially 3 and 7, in betting ATS. Spreads of 2.5, 3.5, and 6.5 are crucial because small shifts can mean the difference between winning and pushing. For instance, backing an underdog at +6.5 gives you a cushion to cover a touchdown, while taking a favorite at -2.5 ensures a field goal win locks in the bet. Betting around these numbers helps you manage risk and gives you an extra edge in tight games, where a point or two can change everything. These numbers are especially important in games where you expect a close contest or a defensive battle, where each possession becomes critical.

This week, I’m picking three games that all revolve around key numbers. A mix of home and road teams, favorites and underdogs. In each case, the number provides value, whether it’s using a +6.5 underdog to cover a touchdown loss or backing a home favorite at -2.5 to avoid a push on a field goal. These small edges can be the difference between turning a profit or moving back into your parents’ basement.

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Best Bets

Packers -2.5 vs Texans

Jordan Love and C.J. Stroud are proving why they’re two of the NFL’s most exciting young quarterbacks. Love has been on fire, throwing at least two touchdown passes in eight straight games while benefiting from excellent pass protection. Green Bay ranks first in PFF pass block grades and has allowed the third-lowest sack rate in the league. This protection gives Love plenty of time to unleash the Packers’ offense, which ranks second in explosive plays of 20+ yards.

Meanwhile, C.J. Stroud has impressed this season but will be without his top target, Nico Collins, for the second straight game. Despite Stroud’s three touchdowns last week, his yardage total was a season-low, showing that Collins’ absence limits the Texans’ ability to stretch the field. The challenge only grows with Green Bay’s defense, which ranks in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive EPA per play. Stroud has also struggled more on the road, averaging just 226 yards per game with a 7.2 yards per attempt, and playing outdoors in Green Bay won’t help.

With Houston ranking 28th in red zone defense and Green Bay excelling at creating turnovers and limiting sacks, this is the kind of game where the Packers’ ability to capitalize on small margins could make all the difference. Matt LaFleur’s 28-16 ATS record at home further strengthens Green Bay’s position to cover the spread against a Texans team missing key pieces.

Raiders +6.5 at Rams

The Rams’ season has been defined by injuries, particularly at receiver, where both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua have struggled to stay healthy. Their offense reflects this, having failed to score more than 20 points in four of five games. Even if Kupp returns this week, it’s unclear whether Los Angeles can find the offensive consistency they’ve lacked all season. They’ve managed to keep games close, but their lone win was by just 3 points, making it hard to imagine them pulling away against an opponent, even at home.

On the other side, while the Raiders have struggled defensively—allowing 30+ points in their last two games—the Rams may not be equipped to fully exploit those weaknesses. With Los Angeles ranking 31st in opponent EPA per play, Aidan O’Connell and the Raiders’ offense will have opportunities to keep the game competitive, especially considering the Rams’ inability to put games away.

Cardinals +2.5 vs Chargers 

While the Chargers have been impressive on defense, they’ve struggled with consistency, particularly on early downs. Justin Herbert’s third-down heroics last week helped mask their inefficiencies, but they ranked near the bottom of the league in early-down success rate. This could be a problem against the Cardinals.

The Chargers’ defensive rankings in DVOA and EPA are solid, but they’ve come mostly against a weaker slate of quarterbacks. With Marvin Harrison Jr. potentially returning, the Cardinals’ offense should have enough firepower to keep things close. The Chargers’ defense has struggled with physicality in recent weeks, and if Arizona can find a rhythm, they have a real chance to win outright. Even if the Chargers come out ahead, I think the margin will be less than a field goal.

Doug Burrell finished 2022 as Fantasy Nerd’s Most Accurate Expert in NFL Picks and Tallysight’s #1 ranked expert Against the Spread Expert out of 200+ experts. He is a veteran, a runner and an avid fantasy sports enthusiast since 1999. You can reach him on Twitter @dougwburrell.

Doug is a veteran, an avid runner, and works as a copywriter. He lives in North Carolina with his wife and three dogs. You can reach him on Twitter @dougwburrell.