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With the 2024 season at the midway point, Oregon State football is in a precarious position in terms of a winning season and getting to a bowl game.
The Beavers will likely be underdogs in games yet to be played against UNLV, California, Washington State, and Boise State. A home game against San Jose State is too close to predict at this time.
With four losses on the horizon and one in the books, the Beavers cannot afford a letdown this weekend at Nevada.
The Wolfpack enter this week’s game with a 2-4 record but there is more to the Nevada story than the record suggests.
Oregon State (4-1) at Nevada (2-4)
The similarities between these teams is intriguing.
Both prefer to run more often than pass. Oregon State is in the top 25 for rush effectiveness while Nevada is in the top 50.
Both have capable passing quarterbacks who can run. At the same time, both have high interception rates.
Both have surprised experts with offensive lines that my savvygameline.com system ranks in the top 50.
Neither defends the rush very well and both defenses are dismal when it comes to bringing pressure.
In other words, both have good rush attacks, decent passing, but weak defenses.
Both have transfer quarterbacks. Oregon State relies on Idaho transfer Gevani McCoy while Nevada is led by former Colorado starter Brendon Lewis.
Both have lead running backs who have been magnificent. Oregon State’s Anthony Hankerson is on pace to top 1000 yards and he is currently the nation’s seventh top scorer on the ground.
The Wolfpack will counter junior Savion Red who averages 7.2 yards per carry.
The Beavers have two advantages. They have only turned the ball over three times all year while Nevada has twice that many turnovers, most of them through the air. And, Oregon State commits fewer penalties while the Wolfpack surrender 87 yards per game to yellow flags.
When the Wolfpack play without turnovers or penalties, they are a tough out.
They’re also one of the best outfits in America when it comes to red zone offense. Nevada has been in the red zone 22 times this year and converted 21 of those into points.
Both teams will stay primarily on the ground and both will have success, Oregon State because its offensive front has been strong and Nevada because Oregon State’s defensive front has been weak.
Beyond stats and tendencies, what makes Nevada a threat to Oregon State’s winning season is discovered by watching this group play. The Wolfpack have been extraordinarily competitive.
Nevada began the season by steadily building to a 24-13 advantage through three quarters against SMU. The Wolfpack produced 148 yards on the ground and that was against SMU’s nationally ranked rush defense. Only a fourth quarter rally saved SMU from a certain loss.
That wasn’t against a mediocre opponent. SMU is currently 5-1 and ranked in the top 25 by the Associated Press and in the top 15 on my Savvy Index.
The following week Nevada defeated a weak Troy team but it was the sudden burst of 28 Wolfpack points in just one half that caught the attention of scouts.
Although Nevada lost to Georgia Southern, it should be noted that the loss was by just three points and GSU’s only losses have been to nationally ranked teams, Mississippi and Boise State. Nevada outgained Georgia Southern 498 to 285 and that became another Wolfpack outburst that gained attention.
Last week at San Jose State, the Wolfpack led until the final 16 seconds when a trick play went for 24 yards and bailed the Spartans out. Keep in mind that San Jose State’s only loss was by two points to Washington State.
It would be a mistake to judge this Nevada outfit by its 2-4 record. Behind that record is a very competitive team that lost three times by less than a touchdown and with a few more yards and fewer trick plays would right now be 5-1.
That is the lesson to be learned. I suppose some will learn it and some will not.
It’s like Will Rogers said, “There are three kinds of men. One learns by reading. A few learn by observing others. The rest of them have to pee on the electric fence for themselves.”
Betting lines favor Oregon State by four.
My Savvy Index prediction system says the Beavers will prevail 32-21 but the upset rating on this game is very high.
I have all 51 game predictions for this week and those can be seen on last Sunday’s post.
The Savvy system is 313-89 in predicting winners. It is seven games better than bookmakers in setting point spreads and a fantastic 57 games better in projecting total game points.
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